A system consists of four components connected as shown in the following diagram:





Assume A, B, C, and D function independently. If the probabilities that A, B, C, and D fail are 0.10, 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20, respectively, what is the probability that the system functions?




P(system functions) = P[(A ? B) (C D)]. Now P(A ? B) = P(A)P(B) = (1?0.10)(1 ? 0.05) = 0.855, and P(C D) = P(C) + P(D) ? P(C ? D) = (1?0.10) + (1 ? 0.20) ? (1 ? 0.10)(1 ? 0.20) = 0.98.

Therefore



P[(A ? B) ? (C D)]=P(A ? B) + P(C D) ? P[(A ? B) ? (C ?D)]

=P(A ? B) + P(C D) ? P(A ? B) P(C D)

= 0.855 + 0.98 ? (0.855)(0.98)

= 0.9971

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