Suppose 40% of all of the books in a library are fiction and 2% of all of the books are on the Roman Empire. Wanda is a big fan of historical fiction novels. Which of the following is she LEAST likely to leave the library with?
A) a fiction book
B) a book which involves the Roman Empire
C) a fictional book that takes place in the Roman Empire
D) the answer cannot be determined from the information given
Answer: C
Rationale: The conjunction fallacy is the mistaken belief that finding a specific member in two overlapping categories (i.e., a member of the conjunction of two categories) is more likely than finding any member of one of the larger, general categories. Because a fictional book about the Roman Empire is a subset of both fiction books and books on Rome, it is a mathematical impossibility that Wanda will be more likely to choose a book that is the conjunction of the two categories than either of them alone.
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