Map the different rates of natural increase in Europe, noting which countries will grow and which will decline in the next 20 years. Then link this map to a discussion of migration in Europe

Question

Given these two factors, how might the population map change in 20 years?

Answer 1

European countries with existing negative rates of natural increase (e.g., Germany, Bulgaria, Poland, Romania) will continue to lose population; only a handful of countries have positive rates of natural increase (e.g., Ireland). Recently, eastern European countries have exhibited higher rates of out-migration, with migrants destined largely toward western European countries. For some states, the declines in natural population growth have been matched by in-migration; for other states, higher rates of out-migration coupled with negative rates of natural increase will lead to substantial population losses.