Has the frequency and intensity of hurricanes increased in recent years? Why or why not? Why might these patterns continue?

Answer 1

The number and intensity of hurricanes, especially in the Atlantic Basin, have increased over the last several decades. Hurricanes are fueled by warm tropical water - the warmer the water, the more fuel available to drive the storm. An increase of only 0.6°C (1°F) can increase sea-surface temperature, which can in turn increase the maximum winds of hurricanes by about 5 knots (almost 6 miles/hr). Sea-surface temperatures have increased across the tropical North Atlantic since the mid-1990s. At least some of this warming may be attributed to an overall temperature rise throughout the world's oceans. Climate models predict that, as the world continues to warm, sea-surface temperatures in the tropics will continue to rise, even by about 2°C (3.6°F) by the end of this century. Should these predictions prove correct, future hurricanes could have much more intense wind speeds. There is debate, however, whether hurricanes will be more frequent.