Describe the construction and problems of medium-range forecasts. Include discussion of ensemble forecasting and the role of chaos
What will be an ideal response?
Answer: One such system is the Global Forecast System (GFS), which is used to formulate forecasts up to 16 days into the future. Since weather systems can form, move great distances, and die out over that period, the GFS requires a grid that covers the entire world. The GFS is, in fact, an amalgam of four models that bring together information on the atmosphere, oceans, soils, and sea ice. Rather than making just a single forecast, ensemble forecasting is widely employed, in which a number of different computer-generated forecasts (runs) are performed for the same period. The reasons have to do with chaos theory, which describes how small disturbances can grow into large disturbances. If two model runs are made with slightly different initial values, the results might be very different after a week or so.
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