Actual sales of a company (in millions of dollars) for January through April are shown below.
MonthSales
January18
February25
March30
April40
May ?
a.Use ? = .3 to compute the exponential smoothing values for sales. Compute MSE and forecast sales for May. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Show all of your computations from February through May.b.Use ? = .1 to compute the exponential smoothing values for sales. Compute MSE and forecast sales for May. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Show all of your computations from February through May.c.Based on MSE, which ? provides a better forecast? Explain why?
What will be an ideal response?
| a. When ? = .30: | ||||
| Month | Sales | Forecasted Values | Error2 | ? |
| January | 18 | |||
| February | 25 | 18.00 | 49.00 | ? |
| March | 30 | 20.10 | 98.01 | ? |
| April | 40 | 23.07 | 286.62 | ? |
| May | ? | 28.15 MSE = | 144.54 | ? |
| b. When ? = .10: | ||||
| Month | Sales | Forecasted Values | Error2 | ? |
| January | 18 | ? | ||
| February | 25 | 18.00 | 49.00 | ? |
| March | 30 | 18.70 | 127.69 | ? |
| April | 40 | 19.83 | 406.83 | ? |
| May | ? | 21.85 MSE = | 194.51 | ? |
| c. | ? = .30 yields a smaller MSE, therefore, it is a better ? to use. |
You might also like to view...
Blogs are being used by executives to share information and
a. launch new initiatives. b. establish company policy. c. justify internal decisions. d. none of the above
What major feature distinguishes a participating policy from a nonparticipating policy?
A) the availability of a waiver-of-premium provision B) the existence of settlement options C) the payment of dividends D) the method by which beneficiaries can be named
A ________ economy is one in which resources are primarily owned and controlled by the private sector.
A. free market B. planned C. command D. technocratic
Social networking sites and their applications can be used to monitor employee performance.
Answer the following statement true (T) or false (F)