Jane: I'd give you 5-to-1 odds that Peter has been lying to you! Sue: So! You see that he has not been lying to me!

Use the rules of probability to determine the strength of the following argument. In other words, given that the premises are true, how likely is the conclusion?


Jane sets the probability that Peter is lying to Sue at 5/6. So, there is only a 1/6 chance that Peter is not lying to Sue. Sue's conclusion is weak if she accepts Jane's odds.

Philosophy & Belief

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