Refer to Example 2.26.

a. If a man tests negative, what is the probability that he actually has the disease?
b. For many medical tests, it is standard procedure to repeat the test when a positive signal is given. If repeated tests are independent, what is the probability that a man will test positive on two successive tests if he has the disease?
c. Assuming repeated tests are independent, what is the probability that a man tests positive on two successive tests if he does not have the disease?
d. If a man tests positive on two successive tests, what is the probability that he has the disease?


Let D represent the event that the man actually has the disease, and let + represent the event that the test gives a positive signal.



We are given that

It follows that
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