What reason did Hubbert have to think that the normal curve would describe the production of oil? Would the Hubbert description apply to a natural resource such as coal in addition to oil? Why or why not?

Question

What will be an ideal response?

Answer 1

Oil is a finite resource. At the beginning of exploitation, the production grows
exponentially as new uses are found, partly because the resource is cheaper than
alternatives. At the end of exploitation, the resource is progressively harder to obtain, it
becomes more expensive, etc. In between, exploitation (production) must hit a maximum.
This sounds very much like a terse description of a normal curve.
Further, the rate of discovery translates into production at a later time. Hubbert observed that
the delay time between discovery and production in the United States was 11 years. If
discovery drops this year, production will have to drop 11 years hence. That was the method
he used to make his famous prediction of peak U.S. production in 1970 (from the lower 48
states).
Any resource that is finite can be modeled in a similar way. All that is needed is for rapid
growth in the beginning and rapid drop at the end, and this is mandated by human behavior
in response to discovery of resources.