Assuming that this segment of the San Andreas Fault ruptures at fairly regular intervals, and paleoseismic studies suggest that this may be true, estimate the year when the next great earthquake might occur along this section of the fault. (Note: This answer is also based on a very simplistic assumption.)
The following questions are based on Map T-25a, Figure 37-3, a detailed topographic map of the San Andreas Fault, Figure 37-5, a stereogram of the San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain National Monument, and Figure 37-6, a portion of the “McKittrick Summit, California,” quadrangle. “Wallace Creek” is an offset stream that has been labeled for you on Figure 37-6.
Most of the movement between the Pacific Plate side and the North American Plate side of the San Andreas Fault is released abruptly after years of accumulating strain—at which time the fault ruptures with a displacement of several meters.
Further, it appears that different segments of the fault remain locked for different periods of time. In a general way, the size of an earthquake expected to occur along a segment of the fault system relates to the length of time the fault accumulates strain before rupturing. The longer the strain accumulates, the larger the earthquake when the fault finally ruptures.
Approximate year of next great earthquake: __________
Approx. in A.D. 2140
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