Two mercenary forecasters dueled for the lucrative Surreal Farms egg production forecasting job. The farmer provided them with output levels from ten day's production and had them forecast the next ten days
The combatant's forecasts and the actual egg production are shown in the table. Which forecaster was more accurate and should be hired as a result of his performance on this trial?
Actual Forecast A Forecast B
Day 1 102 97 107
Day 2 108 105 113
Day 3 118 113 109
Day 4 130 124 119
Day 5 142 136 130
Day 6 154 148 142
Day 7 166 160 154
Day 8 181 174 167
Day 9 198 190 182
Day 10 206 202 195
Based on mean absolute deviation and mean absolute percent error; Forecaster A is more accurate than Forecaster B.
Period Error A Error B Absolute Error A Absolute Error B Abs % Error A Abs % Error B
Day 1 5 -5 5 5 4.9% 4.9%
Day 2 3 -5 3 5 2.8% 4.63%
Day 3 5 9 5 9 4.2% 7.63%
Day 4 6 11 6 11 4.6% 8.46%
Day 5 6 12 6 12 4.2% 8.45%
Day 6 6 12 6 12 3.9% 7.79%
Day 7 6 12 6 12 3.6% 7.23%
Day 8 7 14 7 14 4.1% 7.73%
Day 9 8 16 8 16 4.3% 8.08%
Day 10 4 11 4 11 1.9% 5.34%
Sum 56 107 56 107 39% 70.25%
Avg 5.6 10.7 5.6 10.7 4% 7%
MADa MADb MAPEa MAPEb
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What will be an ideal response?