Suppose the prior belief of the terrorists is that the government is responsive with probability 0.5 and is repressive with probability 0.5. Suppose the government offers to negotiate. Also suppose that the probability that a responsive government will offer to negotiate is 1 and that the probability that a repressive government will offer to negotiate is 0.2. How does this new information (about the government’s willingness to negotiate) affect the terrorists’ estimation of the probability that the government is responsive?
a. The terrorists now believe that the government is more likely to be responsive.
b. The terrorists now believe that the government is less likely to be responsive.
c. The terrorists’ perception of the government does not change.
d. The terrorists are now certain that the government is responsive.
Ans: a
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