A research scientist has observed the monkeys of the Nandi Hills outside of Bangalore for the last twenty years, carefully cataloging their preferences for a number of food items. An unsuspecting tourist leaves his can of soda unattended

Question

Describe the type of probability the research scientist can assign to the likelihood that the soda will become the monkey's next meal. Then contrast this type of probability with the other of the two basic types.

Answer 1

Answer: The two types of probability are objective and subjective. Objective probabilities can be stated prior to the occurrence of an event and since the scientist has observed these monkeys for twenty years, there are relative frequency probabilities associated with common items such as a can of soda. The other type of probability is subjective, which is an estimate based on personal belief. Since the scientist is experienced, this would not be an appropriate characterization of the event. We could assume the tourist is unfamiliar with the behavior of these monkeys, thus the tourist's estimate would most likely be subjective (unless the tourist was a primate research scientist on holiday).