Assume that the current generation or first generation consists of 20 million people, half of whom are women. If the total fertility rate is 1.2 and the only way people die is of old age, how big will the second generation be? In percentage terms, how
much smaller is second generation than the previous generation?
What will be an ideal response?
If the first generation has 20 million people, the second will have 12 million. This is calculated by multiplying 20 million times the fertility rate of 1.2 divided by 2. [= 20,000,000 x 1.2/2.0]. Each generation will be 40 percent smaller than the previous generation [= 1 ? (1.2/2.0) or (.60?1)/1].
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