Two STR loci were determined to have the following allele frequencies in the general population: STR A STR B Alleles: 1A: 0.1 1B: 0.4 2A: 0.55 2B: 0.4 3A: 0.25 3B: 0.2 4A: 0
1 A suspect in a criminal trial was genetically tested for these loci and was found to have the genotype (1A, 1A) for STR A and (2B, 2B) for STR B–homozygous for both loci. What is the probability that a randomly sampled person from this population would also have this genotype?
The product rule states that the net probability is the product of the independent probabilities. Since these are homozygous genotypes, the probability of the STR A genotype is: 0.1 × 0.1 = 0.01, and the STR B genotype is 0.4 × 0.4 = 0.16. The net probability is then 0.01 × 0.16 = 0.0016. There is an approximately one in a thousand chance that a randomly selected person would share these STR genotypes.
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