Describe four methods of forecasting the weather and give an example for each one.?

Question

What will be the ideal response?

Answer 1

ANSWER: Persistence: a prediction that future weather will be the same as present weather. If it is snowing today, a persistence forecast would call for snow through tomorrow. Steady-state (trend) method: The principle involved here is that surface weather systems tend to move in the same direction and at approximately the same speed as they have been moving, providing no evidence exists to indicate otherwise. Suppose, for example, that a cold front is moving eastward at an average speed of 30 km per hour and it is 90 km west of your home. Using the steady-state method, we might extrapolate and predict that the front should pass through your area in three hours. Analogue method: this method relies on the fact that existing features on a weather chart (or a series of charts) may strongly resemble features that produced certain weather conditions sometime in the past. A forecaster might look at a prog and say “I’ve seen this weather situation before, and this happened.” Prior weather events can then be utilized as a guide to the future. Statistical methods: known as Model Output Statistics, or MOS, these predictions, in effect, are statistically weighted analogue forecast corrections incorporated into the computer model output. For example, a forecast of tomorrow’s maximum temperature might be derived from a statistical equation that uses a numerical model’s forecast of relative humidity, cloud cover, wind direction, and air temperature.