Discuss how global circulation models (GCMs) use processes involved in the Earth's energy budget to understand impacts of global warming. Which specific processes are manipulated in these computer simulations?
What will be an ideal response?
The most useful tools for gauging future changes in a climate are global circulation models. They use mathematical equations to simulate the physical processes of absorption and reflection of sunlight by the atmosphere, the heating of the land and ocean, the circulation of heat from the equator to the poles, and when relevant, changes in the global ocean current patterns.
Scientists vary the global circulation models to simulate different scenarios. The scenarios differ in the assumptions about economic growth, fossil fuel consumption and use, government policies that affect energy use and human actions that increase greenhouse gas emissions. All these factors analyzed together produce different climate interactions, producing different climate change forecasts.
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