Discuss the MIDAS project

Question

What will be an ideal response?

Answer 1

In 2004, the United States funded a plan for researchers to use computers to model diseases called the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study (MIDAS). The goal of the project is to develop statistical tools to identify and monitor infectious disease. It will (if successful) use electronic health information. The investigators will combine a variety of electronic health information to detect the outbreak of infectious disease, devise models of communities, and simulate the effects of outbreaks. They will also evaluate preventive measures and containment strategies. Once models of disease and their spread are created, they will enable public health officials to make more meaningful use of health statistics. Newly gathered statistics will simply be plugged in to the model.
In the United States, computer experts who use MIDAS and scientists in the flu branch of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are working together to develop simulations that should help to control outbreaks if certain conditions are met, including early identification; sufficient supplies of antiviral drugs and the means to get them to those who need them; the ability to enforce quarantine; and international cooperation, including restricting travel and sharing antiviral drugs. As soon as cases of H1N1 appeared in April 2009, MIDAS started to create models for the possible spread of the disease; these built on models created earlier for bird flu and information from the Great Flu Pandemic of 1918 . The model included the world population and information about immunity. It predicted the severity of the outbreak by sampling flu patients in two cities. A simulation was also created to evaluate interventions, such as vaccination of children. In this model, certain variables were changed, such as the type of vaccine, how contagious the virus was, and how many children were vaccinated, to evaluate the effects of those differences.