The PMS database has accumulated information regarding the performance of a pavement section before being overlaid as well as the performance of the overlay. The following data were recorded. Develop a linear prediction model (PCR=a + b × Age) for the two cases. If a criterion was established that maintenance or rehabilitation should occur when the PCR reaches a value of 81, when should such actions take place in the two cases?
What will be an ideal response?
Using regression analysis, the prediction model for the pavement section before
being overlaid is:
PCR = 101.47 – 2.31(AGE) (with an R2 = 0.997)
Using regression analysis, the prediction model for the overlay is:
PCR = 100.96 – 2.72(AGE) (with an R2 = 0.975)
Therefore, the original pavement section will reach a PCR value of 81 at age:
81 = 101.47 – 2.31(AGE)
AGE = (101.47 – 81) / 2.31
AGE = 8.9 years
The overlay will reach a PCR value of 81 after:
81 = 99.94 – 2.58(AGE)
AGE = (99.94 – 81) / 2.58
AGE = 7.3 years
The first action should take place after 8.9 years for the original section, and after
7.3 years for the overlay.
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