The PMS database has accumulated information regarding the performance of a pavement section before being overlaid as well as the performance of the overlay. The following data were recorded. Develop a linear prediction model (PCR=a + b × Age) for the two cases. If a criterion was established that maintenance or rehabilitation should occur when the PCR reaches a value of 81, when should such actions take place in the two cases?

Question

What will be an ideal response?

Answer 1

Using regression analysis, the prediction model for the pavement section before
being overlaid is:
PCR = 101.47 – 2.31(AGE) (with an R2 = 0.997)
Using regression analysis, the prediction model for the overlay is:
PCR = 100.96 – 2.72(AGE) (with an R2 = 0.975)
Therefore, the original pavement section will reach a PCR value of 81 at age:
81 = 101.47 – 2.31(AGE)
AGE = (101.47 – 81) / 2.31
AGE = 8.9 years
The overlay will reach a PCR value of 81 after:
81 = 99.94 – 2.58(AGE)
AGE = (99.94 – 81) / 2.58
AGE = 7.3 years
The first action should take place after 8.9 years for the original section, and after
7.3 years for the overlay.