How is a typical forecasting process similar to the Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA) cycle? (See Chapter 5 for more information on PDSA)

Question

What will be an ideal response?

Answer 1

The authors indicate that forecasting is a process that should be continually reviewed for improvements; the PDSA cycle provides one vehicle for continuous improvement. The authors present a six step cycle for forecasting: (1 ) adjust the history file, (2 ) prepare initial forecasts, (3 ) consensus meetings and collaboration, (4 ) revise forecasts, (5 ) review by the operating committee, and (6 ) finalize and communicate the forecasts. The history file adjustment in step 1 provides a check of forecast accuracy; if results have been less than stellar, then planners and forecasters will explore different techniques and/or independent variables to prepare future forecasts. This approach closely parallels the PDSA cycle of methodically trying a new approach and checking results before acting system-wide.