The impact of a 100-meter object will not cause "widespread" devastation, but it could still kill millions of people if it struck a major city. In Part C, you found that the probability of such an impact in any single year is only 1 in 1000. Suppose we learn that it has already been 1200 years since the last such impact. What would that tell us?
A. Nothing; we would still presume that the chance of such an impact during the next year is 1 in 1000.
B. We are clearly due for such an impact, so the actual probability for the coming year must be much higher than 1 in 1000.
C. We are overdue for the impact of a 100-meter object, so we should expect the impact of an even larger object during the next few years.
D. There must be something wrong with the graph, because if the 1 in 1000 probability were correct, then there would have been an impact some time during the past 1000 years. Since there wasn't, the actual probability must be lower than 1 in 1000.
Ans: A. Nothing; we would still presume that the chance of such an impact during the next year is 1 in 1000.
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a.
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