The pointy-haired dean gently suggested that study tour offerings be doubled in the coming three years so Dilbert dutifully explored the possibility of offering a week-long study tour to Elbonia

Question

The globalization committee's consensus was that the probability of failure was high; after some discussion they agreed that the figure was perhaps 0.6. The consequences of failure were another matter. The cost of failure was 0.2, the schedule element was 0.1, and the reliability score was 0.1. The team was divided on what to do with the performance score. Two members were adamant that it was possibly as high as 0.7, but the other two members felt the performance score was closer to the others, in the neighborhood of 0.15. Estimate the overall project risk factor for this undertaking and offer commentary as to the efficacy of the study tour to Elbonia.

Answer 1

Using the high estimate for the performance score, the overall project risk factor is 0.71. Using the low estimate for the performance score, the overall risk factor is 0.655. The difference between the two values is minimal, although the rule of thumb cutoff of 0.7 puts the high estimate risk category as high and the low estimate at the upper end of the medium risk. Dilbert might be well-served to avoid a study tour to Elbonia.

High Estimate
Cf = (Cc + Cs + Cr + Cp)/4
Cf = (0.2 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.7)/4
Cf = 1.1/4 = 0.275

Low Estimate
Cf = (Cc + Cs + Cr + Cp)/4
Cf = (0.2 + 0.1 + 0.1 + 0.15)/4
Cf = 0.55/4 = 0.1375

Overall High
RF = Pf + Cf - PfCf
RF = 0.6 + 0.275 - 0.6 × 0.275
RF = 0.71

Overall Low
RF = Pf + Cf - PfCf
RF = 0.6 + 0.275 - 0.6 × 0.275
RF = 0.655