Although President George W. Bush declared victory in the Iraq War in May 2003, the United States officially continued to fight in Iraq until 2011. Drawing on your knowledge of psychological processes that affect decision making, what do you think would be a convincing explanation of such excessive optimism in the Bush administration? What would be an alternative explanation for the same phenomenon?

What will be an ideal response?


The ideal answer should include:
1. State that President Bush was hasty in announcing the end of the war in Iraq in 2003.
2. Explain why that might the case. For instance, group psychology, which refers to the tendency of groups to validate wrong decisions by becoming overconfident and underestimating risks, encourages overconfidence and excessive optimism among decision makers.
3. Provide an alternative explanation. For example, individual misperception, which refers to the mistaken processing of the available information about a decision due to affective and cognitive bias, could be at play here.
4. Offer a compelling summary and effective conclusion.

Political Science

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