Ans: 1. Naïve estimates of program effects: A naïve effect estimate is what results when the average outcome for a group that participated in or had access to a program is simply compared with the average for another group that did not participate in the program or have access to it.

Question

What will be an ideal response?

Answer 1

Ans: Bias is present when either the measurement of the outcome with program exposure or the estimate of the counterfactual outcome departs from the corresponding true value. Unfortunately for the evaluator and other stakeholders, the extent of the bias cannot be determined from the data collected for an impact evaluation, leaving some degree of uncertainty about the validity of the effect estimates with even the strongest of these designs. Selection bias arises when some process that is not fully known influences whether individuals enter into the program group or the comparison group with no assurance that this process selected completely comparable individuals for each group. Naturally occurring trends in the community, region, or country, sometimes termed secular drift, may produce changes that enhance or mask actual program effects. Sometimes, short-term events can produce changes that distort the estimates of program effect. Impact evaluations must often cope with natural maturational and