Examine other accounts of the successes of scenario analysis. [Note: In addition to the references cited already, see: Burt et al. (2006); chapter 14 of McGee, Thomas and Wilson (2005); Mercer (1998); Schoemaker (1995); Walsh (2005).]Are you persuaded or has hindsight been invoked in support of the claims made for this technique?

What will be an ideal response?


The key point about scenario analysis is not that a scenario is a forecast with calculable probability
of occurring, but a vision (a gestalt) of what cannot be ruled out as a plausible future, however
unlikely it may currently seem. Once envisioned its implications can be explored as well as the
paths that could lead towards it. This kind of analysis may prove vital for understanding and
realising desirable global futures such as the ‘hydrogen economy.’ It seems highly probable that all
major vehicle and energy companies as well as academic and governmental agencies are examining
this scenario and its particular implications for them. Naturally, it is always easier in the popular
literature to discuss successful (realised) scenarios after the event than failed (non-realised) ones. So
there is a temptation to ‘talk up’ the positive cases, not least if one is a scenario consultant ….

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