How and why do Malthusian theory and demographic transition theory lead to different conclusions about the future of global population? Which theory do you find more persuasive? Why?
What is an Ideal response?
• Thomas Malthus (1766–1834) offered a simple mathematical analysis of population increase that led to a troubling conclusion. Population would increase according to what mathematicians call a geometric progression while food production would increase, only in arithmetic progression. Malthus concluded that people would soon reproduce beyond what the planet could feed, leading to starvation and social chaos.
• Demographic transition theory links demographic changes to a society's level of technological development. It holds that technological advances gradually slow population increase. Societies pass through four stages: (1) preindustrial agrarian, (2) onset of industrialization, (3) mature industrial economy, (4) postindustrial economy.
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