If asked, “Which is more probable?
A. Number one ranked golfer Luke Donald will not be in the lead after the first round of golf of a tournament but will win the tournament.
B. Number one ranked golfer Luke Donald will not be in the lead after the first round of golf of a tournament.”
Most people would answer A, although A is less likely to be true than B. According to Tversky and Kahneman, such faulty conclusions are based on
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