Name the two enrollment projection techniques described and tell how they are alike and how they differ generally. What factors should be considered when selecting the technique appropriate for a given district?

Question

What will be an ideal response?

Answer 1

ANS:
The Survival Ratio Technique (SRT) and the Bayesian Estimation Process (BEP) are enrollment projection techniques used by school districts to predict student enrollments. Both the SRT and the BEP use only the simple mathematical procedures of addition, multiplication, and division. The SRT is a linear projection technique and relies strictly on known (objective) historical enrollment information. The BEP is a non-linear projection technique that utilizes known (objective) data and unknown (subjective) data that is garnered from external and internal environmental factors. The particulars of a public school system relative to external and internal factors must be considered when selecting an enrollment projection technique. SRT is appropriate for school systems or buildings that can be characterized by stable enrollments and/or steadily changing enrollments following only a linear progression across time (consistently either increasing or decreasing). The BEP is appropriate for school systems or buildings that are not characterized by stable enrollments and/or steadily changing enrollments where student enrollments fail to follow a linear pattern of progression. It is not unusual for school districts developing their first strategic plan for the human resource function to project student enrollments by both systems (SRT and BEP). The value of each system can be determined through auditing processes as to which system is more accurate.