The following table represents the actual vs. forecasted amount of new customers acquired by a major credit card company:
Month Actual Forecast
Jan 1024 1010
Feb 1057 1025
March 1049 1141
April 1069 1053
May 1065 1059
(a) What is the tracking signal?
(b) Based on the answer in part (a), comment on the accuracy of this forecast.
Month Actual Forecast Error RSFE
Jan 1024 1010 14 14 14
Feb 1057 1025 32 46 32
March 1049 1141 -92 -46 92
April 1069 1053 16 -30 16
May 1065 1059 6 -24 6
(a) RSFE/MAD = -24/32 = -0.75 MAD
(b) The answer in part (a) indicates an accurate forecast, one where overall, the actual amount of new customers was slightly less than the forecast.
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