What is the probability that the project will take longer than 58 days to complete?
Marcy Fetter, a staff analyst at the Los Angeles plant of Computer Products Corporation, is assigned to the team that is developing the process design for producing an RFID sensor. The corporate planning group in San Jose, California, has contacted her and asked how confident the design group is about completing the project in 60 days. She has developed the following estimated time durations in days for the project:
For path A-D-H-J:
SVt = 0.694 + 0.694 + 1.000 + 1.000 = 3.388 days
z = (x – m)/st = (58 – 54)/1.84 = 2.17
P(D > 58) = 1 – 0.9850 = 0.0150 or about 1.5%
(There is a 98.5% chance of the project being completed within 58 days.)
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