Use the values in the table to calculate activity durations and variances for the project
Which path is critical? How closely should the other path be watched and why?
Activity Predecessor Optimistic Likely Pessimistic
A -- 4 6 10
B A 2 5 8
C A 6 7 9
D B 3 9 20
E C 7 9 11
F D,E 7 11 19
The critical path is ACEF at 34.17 days and path ABDF has duration of 32.83 days. The path variances are ACEF=5.69 and ABDF=14.02, resulting in standard deviations of 2.39 and 3.75 days, respectively. The higher variability associated with the non-critical path is cause for concern; it will take a movement of only one standard deviation above the mean for the non-critical path to become critical.
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